基于改进Stacking集成学习的期权隐含波动率趋势预测

TREND PREDICTION OF OPTION IMPLIED VOLATILITY BASED ON IMPROVED STACKING ENSEMBLE LEARNING

  • 摘要: 为了提升期权投资者的投资决策水平,采用Stacking集成学习框架对上证50ETF期权隐含波动率涨跌趋势进行预测。选取随机森林(RF)、AdaBoost、梯度提升树(GBDT)和XGBoost四种基于树的集成模型作为基分类器训练原始数据并进行嵌入式特征选择,再次将特征选择结果传入基分类器,通过改变基分类器的不同输入特征构建基于特征选择的Stacking集成模型。实验结果表明,改进的Stacking集成模型相较于基分类器和传统Stacking模型在准确率、精确率和F1-Score上均有显著提升,取得了更为理想的预测效果。

     

    Abstract: In order to improve the investment decision making level of option investors, the Stacking ensemble learning framework was used to predict the rise and fall trend of the implied volatility of SSE 50ETF options. Four tree-based ensemble models, random forest (RF), AdaBoost, Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) and XGBoost, were selected as the base classifier to train the original data and carry out embedded feature selection. Again, the feature selection results were introduced into the base classifier, and the Stacking ensemble model based on feature selection was constructed by changing the different input features of the base classifier. The experimental results show that the improved Stacking ensemble model achieves significantly improvement on the precision accuracy and F1-score compared with the base classifier and the traditional Stacking model, and achieves a more ideal prediction effect.

     

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