基于RF-LightGBM-LSTM的短期风向预测

SHORT-TERM WIND DIRECTION PREDICTION METHOD BASED ON RF-LIGHTGBM-LSTM

  • 摘要: 传统风突变监测对采集的风向进行阈值判断,无法改变机组因较大风向变化导致的停机问题。针对这种情况,提出一种风向时间序列智能预测方法。以机组实际运行数据作为数据集,采用随机森林方法进行特征工程,解决风向序列特征过少的问题;采用Sigmoid函数对序列数据二分类并基于LightGBM分别构建回归模型预测,应用贝叶斯优化模型参数调优,优化模型性能;采用LSTM算法建立残差预测模型进行自校正。实验结果表明,组合的自校正模型提高了预测精度,具有可行性。

     

    Abstract: Traditional wind mutation monitoring performs threshold judgment on the collected wind direction sequence, which cannot change the shutdown problem of the plant due to large wind direction changes. In response to this situation, an intelligent wind direction time series forecasting method is proposed. The actual operating data of the plant was used as the data set, and the random forest method was applied for feature engineering to solve the problem of too few features. The Sigmoid function was used to classify the sequence and the regression models were constructed based on LightGBM for prediction. Bayesian optimization was applied to tune model parameters and the model performance was optimized. LSTM algorithm was used to establish a residual prediction model for self-correction. The experimental results show that the combined self-correction model improves the prediction accuracy and is feasible.

     

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