面向光伏功率预测的残差深度学习模型

RESIDUAL DEEP LEARNING MODEL FOR PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER PREDICTION

  • 摘要: 为保证光伏功率预测模型在气象突变时具有较高的精度,提出用残差量化气象突变,并将其构造为一种新特征。应用最大信息系数(MIC)剔除无关的气象特征后,引入XGBoost模型得到残差序列。利用残差的自相关性,将上一时刻的残差作为当前时刻的新特征,构建面向光伏功率预测的残差深度学习模型。实验结果表明,在气象突变下,该模型能取得更高的精确度。

     

    Abstract: To ensure that the photovoltaic power prediction model has high accuracy when the meteorological abrupt changes, quantifying the weather abruptly by residuals is proposed and constructed as a new feature. After applying the maximum information coefficient (MIC) to eliminate the irrelevant meteorological features, the XGBoost model was introduced to obtain the residual series. Using the autocorrelation of the residuals, the residuals of the previous moment were used as the new features of the current moment to construct a deep learning model of residuals for photovoltaic power prediction. The experimental results show that the proposed model can achieve higher accuracy under sudden meteorological changes.

     

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