基于自注意力机制LSTM的COVID-19感染预测

VIRUS PROPAGATION PREDICTION BASED ON LSTM-SELF-ATTENTION

  • 摘要: COVID-19因各国气候、政府政策和疫苗接种人数等因素的不同而呈现不同的发展趋势,这导致JPCOVID-19数据不稳定,传统的机理模型无法根据历史时序数据做出准确预测。因此,提出一种在深度学习LSTM网络框架下引入Self-Attention机制的改进模型。通过仿真实验,对中国、英国和意大利的COVID-19现存病例数据进行预测,并与带有非线性传染率的SIS模型、LSTM模型和ConvLSTM模型的预测结果对比,实验证明,相比于其他三种模型,LSTM-Self-Attention模型的预测精度更高。

     

    Abstract: COVID-19 presents different development trends due to different climate, government policies and vaccination population in different countries, which leads to the instability of COVID-19 data. The traditional mechanism model cannot make accurate prediction based on historical time series data. Therefore, this paper proposes an improved model with self-attention mechanism in the framework of deep learning LSTM network. Through simulation experiments, the existing data of COVID-19 in China, Britain and Italy were predicted, and the prediction results were compared with those of SIS model, LSTM model and ConvLSTM model with nonlinear infection rate. Experiments show that LSTM Self-Attention model has higher prediction accuracy than the other three models.

     

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