基于跳跃连接策略和TCN-BiLSTM的光伏功率预测

PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER FORECASTING METHOD BASED ON SKIP CONNECTION STRATEGY COMBINED WITH TCN-BiLSTM

  • 摘要: 针对光伏功率预测过程中,数据的短期非线性规律和长周期性捕获不充分的问题,提出一种基于跳跃连接策略和TCN-BiLSTM模型的光伏功率预测方法。通过灰色关联度寻找相似样本,构成当日的预测数据集;使用时间卷积网络(TCN)进行局部特征提取,以保持特征的时序性;采用跳跃连接策略的双向长短时记忆网络(BiLSTM)充分学习光伏序列的长期间短期序列模式特征,并结合注意力机制自适应地关注更重要的历史状态。通过某电站的实测数据进行实验,结果表明,该方法能有效预测光伏发电功率,且相较于通用模型,具有更小的预测误差和更高的鲁棒性。

     

    Abstract: Aimed at the problems of short-term nonlinearity of data and insufficient long-term periodicity capture in the process of photovoltaic power prediction, a photovoltaic power prediction method based on skip connection strategy and TCN-BiLSTM model is proposed. Similar samples were found through the grey correlation degree to form the prediction data set of the day. Temporal convolutional network (TCN) was used to extract local features to maintain the time series of features. The bi-directional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) network using the skip connection strategy was used to learn the long-term and short-term sequence features and combine the attention mechanism to adaptively focus on more important historical states. The experimental results based on actual power station data show that this method can effectively predict photovoltaic power generation, and has smaller prediction error and higher robustness than the general model.

     

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