一种多层卷积双向门控复合模型的4D航迹预测方法

A 4D TRACK PREDICTION METHOD FOR MULTI-LAYER CONVOLUTIONAL BIDIRECTIONAL GATING COMPOSITE MODEL

  • 摘要: 因4D航迹数据存在体量较大和时空特征丰富等特点,导致大部分预测模型存在预测维度缺失、时空特征提取不充分、预测长度较短等问题。为解决上述问题,以卷积神经网络(CNN)和双向门控循环单元(BIGRU)为基础,引入多层神经网络策略以及航迹数据适应性的预处理算法,建立一种多层卷积双向门控复合模型(Multi-layerConvolutionalBidirectionalGatedComposite,MCBAC),实现航迹数据时空特征的同时处理,提高4D航迹预测精度。实验结果表明:MCBAC模型在处理民用航空4D航迹预测问题时,其预测结果在预测精度、偏差范围、可预测时长等方面均存在明显优势,此外,其误差值在任何维度上都小于对比预测模型,预测结果拟合度以及模型性能较优。

     

    Abstract: Due to the large volume and rich spatiotemporal features of 4D trajectory data, most prediction models have problems such as missing prediction dimension, insufficient extraction of spatiotemporal features, and short prediction length. To solve the above problems, a multi-layer convolutional bidirectional gated composite (MCBAC) model is established based on convolutional neural network (CNN) and bidirectional gated recurrent unit (BIGRU), introducing a multi-layer neural network strategy and a pre-processing algorithm for the adaptation of the trajectory data to realize the simultaneous processing of spatiotemporal features of the trajectory data and improve the 4D trajectory prediction accuracy. The experimental results show that the MCBAC model has significant advantages in terms of prediction accuracy, deviation range, and predictable duration when dealing with civil aviation 4D trajectory prediction problem, its error value is smaller than that of the comparison prediction model in any dimension, and the fit of the prediction results and the model performance are better.

     

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