基于lbCNNM-MSTL-TFT的地铁进站客流预测方法

SUBWAYINBOUNDPASSENGERFLOWPREDICTIONMETHODBASEDONLBCNNM-MSTL-TFT

  • 摘要: 对地铁客流量进行较精确的预测需要考虑长期-短期特征的融合,充分捕捉数据中的周期和非周期特征。针对这一问题,提出一种结合学习方法和学习方法的地铁客流量预测模型IbCNNM-MSTL-TFT。该模型从多重时间尺度上分析时序数据的内部规律和周期性,取代传统模型的单一时间尺度,从而高效融合多重特征,输出预测结果。在某条地铁线路上15个站台的实验结果表明,IbCNNM-MSTL-TFT预测误差与基准模型TFT相比在11个站台上明显下降,MAE下降了0.9,RMSE下降了3.7。该模型的预测精确度也优于当前其他诸多深度学习预测模型,具有较强的预测能力。

     

    Abstract: A more accurate prediction of subway passenger flow requires the integration of long- term and short- term characteristics to fully capture both periodic and non- periodic features. To tackle this issue, we propose a metro passenger flow prediction model called IbCNNM- MSTL- TFT, which combines learning and non- learning methods. The model analyzed the internal regularity and periodicity of the time- series data across multiple time scales, replacing the single time scale used in traditional models, which allowed for the efficient integration of multiple features and the generation of prediction results. Experimental results from 15 stations on a subway line indicate that the IbCNNM- MSTL- TFT prediction error is significantly lower compared with the benchmark model TFT at 11 stations. The mean absolute error (MAE) was decreased by 0.9, and the root mean square error (RMSE) was decreased by 3.7. The model's prediction accuracy surpasses that of many other current deep- learning prediction models, and it demonstrates strong predictive capability.

     

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